Changes in flood hazards: Insights from palaeoflood studies

Abstract

Climate models predict an increase in extreme hydrological events (droughts and floods) as global tempera-tures respond to anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases. This change in the pattern of extreme events due to global climate change raises uncertainties in assessing the risk of future droughts and floods. Conventionally, this problem has been addressed from a “top-down” approach based on downscaling of climate models. The develop-ment of this approach generates a high uncertainty that, in practice, does not allow determining in a reasonable and operational manner the magnitude of the change. Recently, it has been proposed to move towards a “bottom-up” approach of progressive adaptation to change based on the experience of recent events. It is assumed that future climate change will not create entirely new types of extreme weather events that have never before occurred on the planet. In this work, we review the main paleo-records (geological and botanical), which allow us to characterize and quantify hydrological extremes and their relation to climate variability at multi-decadal and secular time scales. This information is relevant to advance in the adaptation to extreme events in the context of climate change, particularly in the design of infrastructures, urbanism and territorial planning